October 11, 2020
Tina
Back in May of this year, we published an opinion piece that detailed the five different ways AMD is beating Intel in the desktop CPU market. You might think Intel would have worked to change that narrative with some aggressive pricing maneuvering—you can't change up your chip designs on a dime, after all—but that hasn't happened. And the thing is, if AMD has anything to say about it, the chips will only continue to stack ever-higher against the silicon giant.
On Oct. 8, AMD took to its virtual event stage to unveil its new line of "Zen 3" CPUs. By the looks of them, these chips not only could extend the company's desktop domination for multi-core content-creation tasks (something its Zen 2-based chips have been doing handily for more than a year now), but they also finally challenge Intel in its last key stronghold: PC gaming, especially at the resolutions most people play at.
With so many improvements to the design, layout, and IPC made to the chips debuting in Zen 3, is AMD primed to become the default CPU choice for desktop computing leading into 2021? Let's break down everything we learned at today's event to find out, through the three key ways AMD could win it all.
The First Way: Its CCX and CCD Changes
One area that AMD has lagged behind Intel over the lifetime of the Zen brand is in gaming performance. It's no secret that in the company's push to lower the cost per core of its flagship processors (through the introduction of chiplet-based architectures), the design decisions have resulted in more latency between core complexes. That manifests itself in reduced performance in certain PC gaming scenarios--especially at the favored 1080p resolution used by most gamers.
This is down to how chips are designed, and, more specifically, how they're laid out on each die. In the chiplet approach, each processor contains a series of four-core "CCXs" (short for "core complexes) that make up the larger "CCD" (core chiplet die).
When a CCD is composed of multiple CCXs (as was the case for all CPUs in the original Zen 2 stack), the added latency that comes from increased communication distances between each CCD prevents single-core, lightly threaded performance from reaching its peak potential.
With Zen 3, AMD has redesigned the chips from the ground up, piggybacking off the advancements made in the company's recent iteration of "XT" processors launched back in July. (See, for example, our review of the Ryzen 7 3800XT.) By rethinking the layout of its CCD and CCX designs, the company could come much closer in its top-tier chips to the kind of single-threaded and gaming-performance boosts we saw in Editors' Choice picks like the AMD Ryzen 3 3300X. The 3300X is a chip that, to this day, continues to reign as the best value pick for desktop PC gamers, versus anything Intel has on offer at a similar price point.
The Second Way: AM4, a Venerable Platform, Keeps Paying Off
Another way that AMD looks poised to continue its winning streak over Intel is in its platform and required socket adoption for new PCs, PC builds, and upgrades...or rather, its lack of required adoption. Instead of forcing buyers onto a new motherboard platform with a new style of CPU socket every other generation of chips (the typical cadence in recent years for Intel's desktop processors), Zen 3 will mark the third launch in the Zen line to feature some level of compatibility with motherboards based on the now-venerable Socket AM4.
The one caveat? Unlike Zen 2, which is compatible with just about any AM4-based motherboard, the cutoff for Zen 3 is a bit higher up the chipset stack this time. The new CPUs will work only with motherboards from the X470, B450, and later chipset generations. (That includes the new X570 and B550 boards.) Plus, it's down to motherboard manufacturers to make it work, issuing the proper updates.
Back in May, the company clarified Zen 3 AM4 compatibility, claiming that a BIOS update would be required for any users of either X470 or B450 motherboards. Now, we have confirmation of that, but it's not the news that some prospective buyers might have hoped. The earliest BIOS updates for 400-series motherboards won't hit the net until January 2021, at the earliest, and even then, they'll be in beta form, not a full release.
This looks like it could develop into a small crack in AMD's otherwise near-impenetrable armor, but one that should seal up quickly enough as the dust from the Zen 3 launch settles. And, in any case, it's still a better prospect than what's going on on the Intel side. With its latest 10th Generation "Comet Lake" desktop chips, such as the Core i5-10600K, there is no backward compatibility to older motherboards. You'll need a new board based on the Z490 chipset and fitted out with an LGA 1200 socket. Full stop.
Either way, ultimately, AMD's hurdles here won't be a big enough deal for Intel to capitalize on by the time motherboard makers are pushing their first BIOS builds out the door. Intel will likely not yet have its next-gen (11th Generation "Rocket Lake") CPUs even out yet.
The Third Way: With 'Rocket Lake' Fizzing, It's Intel 14nm....Again
Having just come off a set of wins in a narrow testing niche--for PC gaming, specifically, at certain resolutions--Intel has been holding its own, to an extent, with the launch of its latest 10th Generation series of Comet Lake CPUs that hit shelves in May of this year. It still has a decisive advantage in some areas.
The company's chips looked to be, at least until today, the undisputed champions in their respective price tiers for both 1080p gaming and lightly threaded and single-core performance. And until we get a chance to benchmark AMD's first few Zen 3 CPUs for ourselves, that will technically remain true.
But the chances of Intel retaining that lead past November 5, 2020, aren't looking all that great. That's given its recent announcement that its coming 11th Generation Rocket Lake line of 14nm desktop CPUs won't be launching until sometime in the first quarter of 2021, well after the holiday season has already passed.
That's late, relative to Zen 3. But just as important: Will Intel's refined 14nm+++ process be able to continue leapfrogging AMD once Zen 3 is launched? Time (along with our benchmarking suite) will tell that story with more clarity. But from a distance and based on what we know from specs and AMD's claims today, don't expect a massive reversal of fortune. The next year of desktop CPU prospects does not look promising for Intel, and barring some unforeseen, undivulged fuel source, Rocket Lake likely won't end up being the company's consumer-desktop savior.
The biggest selling point divulged so far around 2021's Rocket Lake? Intel's supporting chipset platform will finally support PCI Express 4.0 buses and speeds, for use with speedy SSDs like the Samsung SSD 980 Pro and to broaden bandwidth for expansion cards. That's great, but the problem is: Ryzen has had PCI Express 4.0 support on chipsets starting with the X570 since the summer of 2019. Ouch.
The Caveat: AMD's Premium Zen 3 Pricing (aka, This Ain't a Charity, Folks!)
Finally, we come to an arena that AMD has had no problem flatly dominating Intel in these days: relative pricing. Since AMD's launch of Zen 2 in 2019, Intel has had a tough time remaining competitive on a cost-per-core basis (or of even entering the arena, depending on who you ask). This advantage comes as a result of AMD's aggressive push both into the 7nm production process with Zen 2, as well as its new "chiplet"-style CPU design, an approach that cuts down on waste and improves yields over traditional monolithic die approaches. That all means lower relative prices at a given core count.
But the value proposition of AMD is a bit more muddled with the launch of Zen 3, and we've got a good idea why: AMD doesn't have to compete wholly on price anymore. Or, at least not to the extent that, perhaps, it needed to just one year ago.
Looking at the launch pricing for the first four Zen 3 chips, they cost, on average, $50 more than they did in the original Zen 2 launch (at each relative tier in the stack), And the cost per core actually went up this time around, a rare occurrence in the world of CPUs.
The company has also continued with a trend left over from the middling Ryzen XT launch: The top three Ryzen 5000 chips announced so far (the Ryzen 7 5800X, the Ryzen 9 5900X, and the Ryzen 9 5950X) will not come with air coolers bundled in the box. Intel has done the same with its top 10th Generation desktop chips, like the Core i9-10900K, but that is yet another consideration that cost-conscious buyers will have to make before they take the Zen 3 plunge.
Now all that said, if you factor in the cost of upgrading to a new platform (which you have to do if you're moving to 10th Generation Intel from any older chip), even at a slightly higher cost per core, AMD is still the better value if you own a compatible motherboard. So even if AMD starts to slip and gives up a little ground on CPU pricing, it could be regained in the face of what your cart will cost at checkout (the cost of motherboard plus CPU, versus CPU alone).
AMD vs. Intel in Late 2020: Are We on the Edge of an Upset?
The first generation of Ryzen, in 2017, was a strong start, but AMD spent a long time sitting in Intel's shadow leading up to the launch of Zen 2. It needed big wins in any area it could to make the proposition of either upgrading from the original Zen, or moving from Intel entirely, to be worth it. And it got them.
Now: Zen 3. With all the factors folded into one, a five-fingered fist from AMD looks to be streaking right for the heart of Intel this time around. Where the Zen 2 launch was looking to challenge Intel's prospects as the dominant force in desktop CPUs, Zen 3 could finally deliver the last sweep in a stunning reversal that's been a long time coming. Intel has been relying for some years now on the diminishing returns from its 14nm production process. With Rocket Lake also launching on that aging lithography, Intel may have no clear response anytime soon to AMD's all-out assault on a core component of its business, short of a price war.
Think about it: If AMD delivers on all the promises of the new Ryzen 5000 series, there could, in theory, be no leg left for Intel to stand on to claim superiority in desktop CPUs for the foreseeable future. That's a gigantic shift from where the market was just a few years ago. (Family after family of hot-running AMD FX CPUs, anyone?) And it goes to show that if you meticulously plan out a launch years in advance (and then actually deliver on the promise of it), the payoff can be stunning and well worth the wait.
We can't wait to test the line of Ryzen 5000 chips and see if, indeed, AMD fulfills its Ryzen ambitions.
Posted in: Hardware
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